Description: This paper presents a history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: The abstract for a paper that describes the history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. Presented at The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure symposium held July 14-15, 2005 in Washington, DC.

Description: This 1978 session focused on valuation techniques for pension plans. Topics covered: 1. Asset Valuation Methods 2. Use of projections and forecasts 3. Has application of forecasts allowed the actuary to determine short range best estimate of future costs different from traditional methods? 4. Treatment of salary scales, turnover assumptions, retirement decrements

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Genetic algorithms [GAs] and neural networks [NNs] are currently being used in actuarial and financial modeling. Nonetheless, while there is a general awareness of the nature of these techniques, there is often only vague familiarity with the details of how they are implemented. This paper is intended to help alleviate this situation. Its purpose is to present an overview of GAs and NNs, which includes an explanation of what they are, how they work, and an example of how they are implemented.

Description: This article uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore pension cost projection variability. The analysis includes the specifications of the model and how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for pension cost projections.

Description: A key concept in post-retirement planning is the random variable future lifetime of a life aged x. While age is an important factor in the determination of this variable, there are other relevant factors, like the state of health and the character of a life aged x. The purpose of this article is to presents some preliminary observations regarding the conceptualization of future lifetime as a fuzzy random variable.

Description: Recent articles addressed the subject of fuzzy regression [FR] and the term structure of interest rates [TSIR]. Their approach relied on possibilistic regression. Although possibilistic regression has been used in many applications, it has a number of limitations, not the least of which is its nebulous relation to the least-squares concept. As an alternative to possibilistic regression, this paper uses fuzzy least square regression to investigate the TSIR.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to discuss modified cost methods that have been proposed for small-plan valuations, The first portion of the paper deals with criteria for choosing a cost method. The next portions deal with small-plan characteristics and the potential shortcomings of conventional cost methods when applied to these plans. The final portion discusses two classes of modified cost methods that have been proposed for circumventing these shortcomings. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: This 1978 session on classification models included 1. models demonstrating the effect of a classification system superimposed on a merit rating system and 2. models demonstrating the subsidization of poorer risks.